How to Win Undaunted: Normandy โ the combat odds
Undaunted's firefights look swingy, but the dice are exactly solvable. You roll d10s (0โ9) and a die succeeds on the defender's total defence value or higher โ a 0 always hits. So every attack's odds come down to two numbers: how many dice you roll, and the target's total defence (base + cover + range). Here's the exact math.
The hit matrix: dice vs total defence
Probability the attack hits (at least one die succeeds), by number of dice rolled (your Attack/Suppress value) against the defender's total defence value D. Darker = more likely to hit:
| Dice ๏ผผ Defence | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 die | 70 | 60 | 50 | 40 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 10 |
| 2 dice | 91 | 84 | 75 | 64 | 51 | 36 | 19 | 19 |
| 3 dice | 97 | 94 | 88 | 78 | 66 | 49 | 27 | 27 |
| 4 dice | 99 | 97 | 94 | 87 | 76 | 59 | 34 | 34 |
Total defence D = base defence (counter) + cover (tile) + range (tiles away, ignored by Blast). Values are P(hit) %. D of 10+ is the floor โ only the 0 face succeeds, 10% per die.
Every point of defence is worth ~10% per die. Closing one tile of range or stripping one point of cover swings a single-die shot by a full 10 percentage points โ position is everything.
Your units, by the numbers
The confirmed attack dice for each combat unit, and their exact hit % against each total defence value:
| Unit / action | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rifleman โ Attack 1 | 70% | 60% | 50% | 40% | 30% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Machine Gunner โ Attack 2 | 91% | 84% | 75% | 64% | 51% | 36% | 19% | 19% |
| Sniper โ Attack 3 | 97% | 94% | 88% | 78% | 66% | 49% | 27% | 27% |
| Machine Gunner โ Suppress 4 | 99% | 97% | 94% | 87% | 76% | 59% | 34% | 34% |
More dice beat high defence. Against a dug-in, distant target a lone Rifleman is a coin-flip at best; a Machine Gunner or Sniper turns the same shot into a strong favourite, because each extra die is another independent roll over the defence value.
What one die does against each defence
The building block: a single die's chance to clear each total defence value (this is why the matrix above looks the way it does):
| Total defence | One die hits |
|---|---|
| Defence 4 | 70% |
| Defence 5 | 60% |
| Defence 6 | 50% |
| Defence 7 | 40% |
| Defence 8 | 30% |
| Defence 9 | 20% |
| Defence 10+ | 10% |
| Defence 11+ | 10% |
Get Undaunted: Normandy
Want to put the data to work? This is an honest Amazon search for the game.
Find Undaunted: Normandy on Amazon โAs an Amazon Associate, EveryGameMade earns from qualifying purchases.
How we got these numbers
Exact probability, not a simulation. The dice are ordinary d10s (0-9); per the official rulebook a die succeeds on its total-defence value or higher, with 0 always succeeding, so per-die success p = (11-D)/10 for D in 1-9 and 1/10 for D>=10, and an attack of X dice hits with probability 1-(1-p)^X. Quoted from the Osprey rulebook and independently confirmed by the Order of Gamers reference; figures here reproduce the rulebook's own worked examples.
Validation: our formula reproduces the official rulebook's worked examples exactly โ 1 die vs
defence 6 = 50%, 2 dice vs 8 = 51%, 3 dice vs 9 =
49%, 4 dice vs 10 = 34.39%. Source code lives in our
sims/ folder (undaunted_sim.py). Confirmed dice counts: Rifleman Attack 1, Machine Gunner Attack 2 / Suppress 4, Sniper Attack 3. Base-defence values are card inputs (Rifleman 4 and Sniper 6 are confirmed; others vary) โ that's why this tool is keyed on total defence D, not unit name. See also the full Undaunted: Normandy entry.
Common questions
How does combat work in Undaunted: Normandy?
You roll a number of ten-sided dice (0โ9) equal to your unit's Attack value. A die succeeds if it shows a number equal to or greater than the defender's total defence value, and a 0 always succeeds. If at least one die succeeds, the attack hits and you remove one of the target's cards โ extra successes don't add up.
What are the odds of hitting in Undaunted?
It depends only on how many dice you roll and the target's total defence (D = base defence + tile cover + range). A single die hits with probability (11โD)/10 for D from 1โ9. So a lone Rifleman (1 die) against defence 6 hits exactly 50% of the time; the full matrix on this page gives every dice-vs-defence combination. Because a 0 always succeeds, even a hopeless shot keeps a 10%-per-die floor.
How do I improve my attack odds in Undaunted?
Lower the defender's total defence: close the distance (every tile of range adds to D), attack out of cover, and use Blast (mortar) attacks, which ignore the range bonus. And bring more dice โ a Machine Gunner (2) or Sniper (3) is dramatically more reliable than a single Rifleman against a well-defended target, because each extra die is another independent chance to clear the defence value.